Is 2025 Black Friday Spending Going to be Up or Down?
- Paul Bolte
- Nov 19, 2025
- 2 min read
With ongoing economic uncertainty and shifting consumer spending habits, Black Friday has become a strong indicator of how—and whether—Canadians are willing to spend, as well as its impact on businesses now and into next year. I’m optimistic that Canada can weather the short-term challenges, especially if we continue prioritizing “Made in Canada” products and broaden our economic base over time. It appears that Black Friday and the rest of the holiday shopping season will perform cautiously better than I initially expected.
So What Are Experts Saying About 2025 Black Friday Sales?Canadian economists and market analysts expect shoppers to approach the season cautiously, focusing on essential items as financial pressures persist. While uncertainty remains, overall spending is still projected to be solid—driven less by impulse buying and more by the pursuit of value, discounts, and meaningful deals.
Key insights from Canadian economists and analysts include:
Financial Caution - Canadians are tightening holiday budgets due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, seeking ways to stretch their spending.
Value-Driven Shopping - Consumers are focusing on essentials and looking for deep discounts (60–70% off) and free shipping on items like toys, home décor, beauty, and tech.
Modest Sales Growth - Holiday retail sales in 2025 are expected to rise 2.7–3.7% over 2024, slightly slower than in recent years.
Strategic Purchasing - Nearly one-third of shoppers plan to buy most of their gifts during Black Friday/Cyber Monday, starting early and comparing prices to maximize deals.
Economic Signals - Despite slower consumption growth in 2025, modest GDP expansion is expected. Black Friday results remain a key indicator of consumer confidence, supported by strength in sectors like hospitality.
Retailer Priorities - Experts urge retailers to emphasize clear financial value, as brands offering real savings will see the strongest results.
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